Thread by @LarrySchweikart: “1) Just so you all understand what I do, for the one-millionth time, I don’t do polls. Yes, from time to time I will post one for those of y […]” #s
unrolled at thread reader on October 17, 2018
Yes, from time to time I will post one for those of you who do. But we’re WAY past polls now because we have actual NUMBERS.
2) A poll is a sample of opinions that cost nothing to give.
Moreover, you have to know that in a political poll you have the correct sample (most absolutely do not).
5) I don’t do polls.
Guess what I did?
I compared it anyway, just out of intuition.
9) Moreover, with the help of Freepers “Ravi” and “SpeedyInTexas” and “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant” and others, I have found that DemoKKKrats are falling behind their 2016 performance
11) Just in case there was some weird state-wide tilt to these numbers, we also . . . .
12) Same is true in IA absentees. Ds always lead in total absentees in IA.
13) So we looked at a key IA district that no one is watching, IA2 that everyone just assumed the D incumbent will win. And lo and behold . .
In a district where the D won by 28,000, and where Ds ALWAYS lead in absentees, to be already down
14) We did something different in Montgomery Co., OH–a key bellwether county. In 2016 “The Accountant” figured out
15) That same county’s absentees are coming in, we can count them .
17) There are similar #s coming in for absentees in AZ, where the Republicans are out to a 7% lead, despite having only . . .
18) Then finally you have to take into account voter registration and voter registration trends, where in 8/10 battleground states since 2016 Rs have made
19) In OH, after doing the “indie” voter math, the Rs have a solid registration lead of 300,000 after all but 2k indies
WHERE DO YOU THINK THIS SHOWS UP WITH “POLLSTERS?” It won’t. None of them did this work.
I’m at each turn, giving you photographic evidence of where the horses are.
Now, that STILL doesn’t mean I’m always right. Horses fall. Some horses really come on at the end.
But . . .
LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY VOTED. We just haven’t counted them yet, but we can know if they were Ds or Rs!!
WON’T CHANGE THOSE VOTES.
24) And what do you think is the single biggest issue motivating people in the last 3 weeks?
25) So let me now ask you this: if 5,000 more Iowans in a single district requested absentee ballots at this time
26) And let me put it this way: if 50,000 (or whatever the number) of FL ballots have already been RETURNED, what was the biggest issue when those people were in the middle of voting?
28) Those are touchdowns already scored. Can’t take them off the board.
See how this works?
30) Finally, my assumption–could be wrong—is that a river carries all boats the same way.
32) Therefore, when I see data—not polls, but ballots—ALL going the same way
SAYING SOMETHING DIFFERENT.
And this was exactly how I knew Trump would win very early in the 2016 election.
The VOTES were talking.